Scenario-Based Futures Research on Tourism Destination Competitiveness: An Interdisciplinary Framework Using Delphi and MICMAC

Mohammadhossein Samar; Mahsa Delshad Siyahkali; Azadeh Abdollahi; Mohammad Seifi Chehr; Mahya Ghouchani

doi:10.15320/ICONARP.2025.315

Authors

Mohammadhossein Samar Azad university central of Tehran https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2802-0599
Mahsa Delshad Siyahkali Islamic Azad University
Azadeh Abdollahi Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3432-5992
Mohammad Seifi Chehr Islamic Azad University
Mahya Ghouchani National University of Skills

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15320/ICONARP.2025.315

Keywords:

Future research, Interaction analysis, Key drivers, Tourism development, Tourism destination competitiveness

Abstract

In recent years, tourism competitiveness has become a key factor in urban development, significantly affecting economic, social, and environmental sustainability. This study aims to identify and analyze the main drivers of tourism destination competitiveness using a futures research methodology. To address this gap, the study adopts a scenario-based futures research framework that integrates the Delphi method (for expert-driven identification of key drivers), MICMAC structural analysis (to evaluate systemic interdependencies), and Scenario Wizard (to generate internally consistent future scenarios). This methodological combination is rarely applied in tourism research and represents an interdisciplinary innovation that allows for dynamic modeling of tourism competitiveness under uncertainty. Through a systematic process, 25 initial factors were categorized into five dimensions, and 14 key drivers were extracted based on their influence. These drivers were then modeled using Scenario Wizard software, resulting in 14 plausible future scenarios. The study found that 80% of these scenarios indicate optimistic conditions for tourism development. The optimal scenario suggests strategic priorities such as fostering tourism culture, promoting inter-organizational coordination, enhancing investment and marketing, and strengthening infrastructure. These insights not only provide a practical framework for policymakers and urban planners but also contribute to the methodological advancement of interdisciplinary scenario-based tourism research.

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Author Biographies

Mahsa Delshad Siyahkali, Islamic Azad University

Mahsa DELSHAD SIYAHKALI, assistant professor and the head of Historical Contexts Research Center at Islamic Azad University. I have been engaged in research in different fields of architecture and urban planning for more than 18 years. My main topics of study include space syntax, urban tourism, the pattern analysis of historical buildings, and the revitalization and reuse of historical buildings.

Azadeh Abdollahi, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch

Azadeh ABDOLLAHI has received a Master’s degree in Architecture. She is an architectural designer, passionate about the design process and drawing inspiration from traditional architectural styles. Her work integrates these rich historical elements with modern approaches, such as computational design and environmental strategies. She strives to create innovative architectural solutions that honor the past while addressing contemporary challenges. Her research is Energy in Architecture, Renewable Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms, Parametric Architecture.

Mohammad Seifi Chehr, Islamic Azad University

Mohammad SEIFI CHEHR has received a bachelor's degree in Industrial engineering. His research interests span the anthropology and sociology, design principles, Systematic analysis, statistical data analysis.

Mahya Ghouchani, National University of Skills

Mahya GHOUCHANI is lecture of university, researcher and inventor in Architectural Engineering. She is inventor and passionate about creativity and innovation. Moreover, she is an INV member of the International Federation of Inventors’ Associations - IFIA. Her unique combination of research expertise, practical innovation, and academic mentorship allows me to provide valuable insights and solutions to businesses and organizations. She is particularly interested in collaborating with companies that seek to innovate and stay ahead of the curve by leveraging cutting-edge research and technological advancements. Her research interests span the Theory and Philosophy of Architecture, Architectural Design, Space and Culture, Intelligent Decision in Architecture, Energy in Buildings, Energy in Architecture, Energy Optimization, Renewable Energy, Artificial Intelligence and Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence in Architecture, Parametric Architecture.

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